The 1789 smallpox epidemic in Sydney, Australia, has long been a subject of historical debate. While some argue that the disease was introduced by Makassar traders, new research suggests a different origin story. This article delves into the complexities of this historical event, exploring the impact of infectious diseases on Indigenous populations and the importance of understanding the past to inform the present.
In April 1789, just 16 months after the arrival of the First Fleet, a smallpox epidemic began among Aboriginal people in the Sydney region. The true scale of the epidemic remains unknown, but historians have debated its cause and spread. Our research, published in Nature Human Behaviour, uses modeling of smallpox transmission and the connections between Indigenous societies to understand how the disease could have spread. The results strongly suggest that the disease came from the British outpost, and it might have spread thousands of kilometers north and west, lasting decades and killing as many as 220,000 Aboriginal people.
Infectious diseases have long been one of history's most destructive forces. The COVID pandemic, which killed an estimated 15 million people in 2020-2021, is only the most recent entry in a list that includes the Black Death, which killed up to half of Europe's population in the 14th century, and the 'Spanish' influenza of 1918 that was responsible for some 17 million deaths. Smallpox, caused by the variola virus, was one of the earliest recorded and most feared diseases, with evidence of its presence in Egyptian mummies dating back to as early as 1500 BCE. In 18th-century Europe, an average of 400,000 people died every year from smallpox, and an estimated 300 million people died of the disease during the 20th century.
For Indigenous peoples around the world, smallpox was one of the most devastating diseases introduced by Europeans. The disease was a major driver of the catastrophe that killed countless Native Americans from Canada to Tierra del Fuego after the arrival of Spanish and Portuguese in the 16th century. Smallpox caused fever, severe illness, and high death rates, especially in Indigenous populations with no previous exposure. Survivors were left with severe scarring.
A persistent narrative in Australia's colonial history is that the disease did not come from the First Fleet. Instead, the argument goes, it was introduced earlier by Makassar traders in the far north of the country. However, our research shows that there was no plausible pathway for the disease to travel from northern Australia to Sydney in time to cause the 1789 outbreak. The evidence strongly supports a Sydney origin linked to the British colony.
The spread of the disease followed coastlines and major rivers, but it did not reach all of Australia. Exactly how the outbreak started is still unclear, but it is possible that the colonists' 'variola matter' could have been accidentally or intentionally released. Our model also deflates the notion that the disease did not extend much beyond the Sydney region, suggesting it could have persisted in the Indigenous population for up to 21 years and spread as far north as Townsville and as far west as Adelaide.
The impact of smallpox on Indigenous communities was catastrophic, with families, knowledge systems, and ways of caring for Country being badly damaged. Elders, children, and pregnant women were especially vulnerable, meaning knowledge, language, and culture suffered deep harm alongside population decline. However, Aboriginal histories describe Dharawal people returning to Sydney Harbour within weeks of the outbreak's peak, and communities regrouped and continued cultural practices over the next century.
In conclusion, the 1789 smallpox epidemic in Sydney had a devastating impact on Indigenous communities, with effects that lasted generations. While it is important for Australians to come to terms with the traumatic legacy of smallpox to inform the national process of healing, we must acknowledge that Indigenous connections to Country were disrupted but never broken. This new evidence highlights the importance of understanding the past to inform the present and to work towards a more equitable future for all Australians.
